STAT {3502, 4612}, Statistical Inference I; Statistical Inference in Practice, Spring 2005

Instructor: Prof. Jaimie Kwon (Homepage)

Lecture: MW ScN 207, 8:00-9:50 pm

Objectives: We will learn about the following concepts and techniques:

Stat 3502: Random variables, sampling distributions (binomial, Poisson, normal, exponential), conditional probability. Estimation, hypothesis testing. Computer-aided computations. Topics include: t-tests, correlation, regression; proportions, chi-squared; ANOVA. Cross-listed with MATH 3502. Prerequisite: MATH 1305 or MATH 1820.

Stat 4612: Probability ideas essential to statistical inference. Estimation and hypothesis-testing for univariate and bivariate data. Individual projects involving computer-aided analysis of real data. Prerequisites: senior or graduate standing, an upper-division STAT course, and MATH 2304.

Required Text:
An Introduction to Statistical Methods and Data Analysis
by R. Lyman Ott, Micheal T. Longnecker,Duxbury Press; 5th edition (December 20, 2000), ISBN: 0534251226

Syllabus

Week Lecture Notes
(PDF)
HW (Usually due in a week) Only some of questions will be graded but students are encouraged to do as many problems as they can. Notes
1

Monday
Wednesday

Topics covered: statistics; bar/pie charts; histogram; various shapes of distribution; Minitab;

HW #1: Ch2 2.2, 2.3
o Ch3 3.1, 3.2, 3.6, 3.9, 3.14, 3.20, 3.32, 3.33, 3.39, 3.44, 3.68, 3.93
Due Wednesday (4/6)- postponed to the following Monday (note the link to datafile is corrected)

Please UPDATE your blackboard email address! I send out announcements via email from time to time

Prof. Trumbo's Minitab Link

Prof. Trumbo's basic stat handouts

Prof. Suess's stat 3052 handouts (some overlap with Prof. Trumbo's materials above)

Minitab download (emailed to blackboard emails; announced in class; posted on blackboard as well)

R download (website)

Ott and Longnecker data file, especially "Datafile Minitab" (zipped; link corrected) in Data Library link of Duxbury site.

2 Monday
Wednesday

Topics covered: measures of variability (range; IQR; var/sd); boxplot; outliers; probability; conditional probability; (Bayes' formula;)

Waitlisted students: Please check if you're in on or after Thursday (4/7). If you're not in even if you signed the addition sheet, please see me next Monday (4/11)

Read the sections in probability chapter.

Minitab tutorial (minitab.pdf)

mindemo.mtw

ex3-6.mtw

3 Monday
Wednesday

Topics covered: random variables; binomial random variable; normal distribution; sampling distributions; central limit theorems

HW #2: Ch4 4.8, 4.10, 4.14, 4.15, 4.16, 4.21, 4.30, 4.37, 4.45, 4.50, 4.51, 4.57, 4.58, 4.59, 4.60, 4.62, 4.63, 4.72, 4.74, 4.80, 4.81, 4.88, 4.90, 4.95, 4.102, 4.113

* Due Monday (4/18)

* 4612 students: Also do exercises 4.23, 4.28, 4.29 (Bayes formula)

Quiz on Coming Monday (4/18/2005)

4 Monday
Wednesday

Topics covered: Inference about population central value; interval estimate; level of confidence; confidence coefficient; 99% confidence interval;

 
5 Monday
Wednesday

Topics covered: Type I and Type II error probabilities; P-value

HW #3:Ch 5, 5.3, 5.5~5.7, 5.18, 5.19, 5.25~5.27, 5.40~5.43,

* Latest Addition: Exercise 5.55. Use Minitab using the datafile on the webpage (ex5-55); do them using both "1-sample z" and "1-sample t" procedures and compare the outputs

* Latest Deletion: Don't need to do 5.48~5.51 (t-test stuff)

Optional problems: (no extra credit but doing these will help you preparing for the test) Ch5 5.13, 5.14, 5.21, 5.34, 5.38, 5.39, 5.56, 5.57, 5.59

* Due Wednesday (5/4)

quiz #1 and solution (pdf)

6 Monday
Wednesday

Topics covered: P-value; t-test; Minitab

The midterm will be given on May 9, 2005 (Monday).
ch-5case study
ex5-38
ex5-52
ex5-55

7 Monday
Wednesday

Monday (5/9) is the Midterm
"Although the exams will be "closed-book", you will be allowed to prepare and use one 8.5" x 11" sheet of notes (on both sides). These notes must be written by hand and may not be composed of photocopies or other machine reproductions of the textbook or of handouts of homework solutions. Also bring your student ID, your own paper (8.5" x 11") and a hand calculator for use during midterm and final exams.

Topics covered; Ch. 5 t-test;
Ch. 6 inferences comparing two population central values;

HW #4: 5.48, 5.50, 5.51, 5.56, 5.57 (t-test)
6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4, 6.5, 6.19, (two-sample t-test)
6.22, (Wilcoxon)
* Due Wednesday (5/18)

midterm solution (pdf)
8 Monday
Wednesday

Minitab on Monday

[everything below this line (grey characters) is tentative]

Topics covered: Ch.7 inferences about population variances; Ch.8 inferences about more than two population central values (ANOVA)

HW #5:
6.25, 6.26, 6.27, (two-sample paired t-test)
7.15, 7.17, (comparing two population variances)
7.22 (comparing multiple variances)
7.27 (supplementary)
8.1, (ANOVA), 8.9, 8.10, 8.12, 8.13 (supplementary exercise)
* Due Wednesday (5/25)

Minitab files

ex6.22

ex6.26

ex6.29

ex 7.22

ex 8.12

9 Monday
Wednesday

There will be in-class open-book open-note quiz on Wednesday (5/25). It will cover Section 5.7 (t-test), Chapter 6, 7 and 8. Of course, problems will come only from those sections which I covered in class. Remember that main focus of the quiz is to prepare for the final.

Since the Quiz covers the material related to HW #5, I posted solutions to the HW 5 in the links in the group email.

Two important points:

* You still need to submit the HW on Wednesday. Use the solutions as the last resort and for checking your answers!

* You're NOT allowed to bring the printout copies of those solutions to the quiz.

Topics covered: Ch. 10 categorical data;

HW #6:
9.7, 9.8, 9.10 (Multiple comparisons; perform only Tukey and Fisher procedures that are available in Minitab; for 9.10, run Dunnett's procedure with S as the control)
10.8, 10.9, 10.29, 10.30 (1 and 2 proportions; use minitab)
10.58, 10.59 (chi-squared test of independence/homogeneity)
* No need to submit; solutions are available on the website at emailed links as well as outside my office; also, doing them is a good way to prepare for the final

Also, don't forget the class project (<=3 pages report)
* Due on the final day

Final is on Monday (5/6) 8:00 - 9:50 PM

Wednesday Quiz and solution (pdf)

Ch 9 case study

ex. 10-58

ex 10-60

ex 10-62

ex 6-8

ex 9-7

10 Monday
Wednesday

Monday (5/30) is Memorial Day Holiday. No class.

Topics covered: Ch. 11linear regression and correlation

Stat 3502 Project:
Write a short report in Word, analyzing a data.
The report needs to be less than or equal to 3 pages long.
It needs to be structured (roughly) as Intro, Methods, Analyiss, Summary.
Use either data in Section 9.1 (interview data) or pick your own data.
Due on the day of the final.

 
11 Monday

Final is on Monday (5/6) 8:00 - 9:50 PM

Final schedule

"Although the exams will be "closed-book", you will be allowed to prepare and use one 8.5" x 11" sheet of notes (on both sides). These notes must be written by hand and may not be composed of photocopies or other machine reproductions of the textbook or of handouts of homework solutions. Also bring your student ID, your own paper (8.5" x 11") and a hand calculator for use during midterm and final exams.

 


Last updated 05/31/2005